Who is going to win Survivor Cagayan?
Yep, got busy again, and I couldn’t post my analysis of Episode 12 in a timely fashion. Had it been any other episode, I guess I’d have to simply skip it, but as the finale is coming our way and that it’s my last chance for unfounded predictions before the end of the season, I couldn’t pass the opportunity.
Instead of analyzing the remaining contestants’ behavior during the previous episode (I’ll do that too), I’ll try to analyze their chances to win it all.
So, let’s try to find out who is going to win Survivor Cagayan?
– Kass McQuillen: Well, it’s pretty simple. As Spencer predicted the day that she betrayed him: she has zero chance to win the game. We haven’t seen such a perfect goat in a very very long time. Here is the problem with Kass: self-awareness. In that, she’s actually more similar to Hantz than Tony will ever be. See, her “Chaoskass” antics are pretty revealing. Yes, they are strategical, no questions about that. Yes, they reach their goal, mostly creating tensions or even conflict between the other contestants, no doubt about that. The thing that she is totally missing is that she also makes people really mad at her. Maybe in a courtroom, creating chaos help her winning cases, I don’t know. The part she is missing is that in the courtroom it doesn’t matter if everyone hates her, it’s not about her. Here it is. If you instigate chaos, other people must not know it comes from you. Yes, you may attain your goal of breaking bonds and alliances, but people will resent you for it, and will not want to give you one million bucks.
That’s why her shit eating grin is kinda sad in a sense. She’s smiling thinking she’s genius manipulating everyone the way she does, except that she’s not aware about how people perceive her and not just each other.
Honestly at this point of the game, whatever the final configuration is, I don’t see how she could win.
– Spencer Bledsoe: Spencer on the other end has the perfect story. He hasn’t made a single enemy. Even his rivalry with Tony, and the fact that they’ve been gunning at each other for a while, stays within the context of the game. There is no animosity between these two. Also, while Spencer has managed to be manipulative at times, it is never perceived as such by the others. On top of that, he has an amazing narrative to sell himself. When the Brains tribe started to self-destruct, he ended up in the bottom quite quickly, and was almost voted out third. From that moment, he had to fight an uphill battle pretty much constantly (he was in a situation of power pretty much only once, when they voted Alexis out). After the merge and Kass’s betrayal, he managed to survive vote after vote after vote without making enemies, and not only by being smart but also by winning immunity (which, he gained points in the jury both with those who value strategy and those who value competitiveness). The only hurdle now is that he pretty much has to win immunity until the final tribal council if he wants to get there. For Spencer, the situation is pretty clear: if he makes it to the end, he’ll win against anyone, but the other remaining contestants know that too, and they’ll do anything they can to prevent him reaching that final tribal council.
– Tony Vlachos: He’s in a very delicate situation here. While I gave him some shit at times for making some terrible moves, I’ll give him all the credit he deserves for playing as hard as he did, and in recent weeks, he hasn’t made that many mistakes even if the super-idol helped him greatly as he knew he was not going home anytime soon. Now, he has made enemies along the way. Quite a lot (Sarah, Morgan, LJ and Jefra are very unlikely to vote for him). He’ll have to make some pretty amazing moves in the time remaining to get some respect from the jury if he hopes to win that final tribal. He started to do so though. At first I was quite perplexed as to why he had voted Trish out. It actually made perfect sense. Trish is loyal to him almost to a fault, and what he did in sending her to the jury was getting one more jury vote. Watch him probably do the same with Woo next.
Well, here is the thing here. We need to start talking about whether we’re going to get a final three or a final two (apparently, CBS latest promo – which I haven’t seen – strongly suggested a final two). In a final three situation, Tony is in trouble and doesn’t have much chances to win. If he goes to the end with Spencer, Spencer wins. If he goes with Woo, Woo could win because of pissed off jury members. (Kass being in the third position in both cases). He could go crazy and go to the end with Spencer and Woo, hoping the votes get more or less evenly divided and that he manages somehow to get more. A bit farfetched though.
In a final two situation, he’ll win against Kass no doubt. He should lose against Spencer, but could win against Woo.
– Yung “Woo” Hwang: Can Woo win? Not sure. He’s well like by pretty much everyone, but I’m not sure many people respect his game play much. Well, he’d win in a final two against Kass, that’s for sure. In a final three against Tony and Kass, he could also hope for something. I don’t think he can win any other configuration.
Next time on Survivor:
We’ll get a winner for what was an amazing season.
Please casting I hope you took note: cast people with personality and who want to win, not just be on TV.
Next to go:
Spencer if he doesn’t win immunity. If he does, Woo may go home.
You want to read more about this week’s episode:
- Rob has a website, a podcast and an amazing know-it-alls analysis.
- Jeff Pitman’s True Dork Times is a must read every week.
- Stephen Fishbach’s blog too (now with illustrations by Erik Reichenbach)
- Dalton Ross at EW.
- Andy Denhart’s Reality Blurred.
- Super Jude’s blog.
- more to come…
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