Caramoan – Episode 9:”Cut off the head of the snake”

 

 

So this is maybe a good season after all. Another great episode, that’s making me scratching my head a little as to what has really happened. So let’s try to break it down.

Oh, on a side note, I usually don’t care about challenge, but I gotta admit that they are great this season.

 

Enil Edam Tribe

 

Brenda - Andrea - Cochran

 

– Andrea Boehlke: Kuddos to her this week. She has basically managed to save herself without really realizing it, as it’s her freak out thinking she may be going home that made the Favorites alliance change their vote from Malcolm to Michael and indeed save her. Although, had Malcolm still been the target and had Phillip not basically revealed too many information at tribal, Malcolm wouldn’t have played (Reynold’s) idol and would have gone home. Also, while Andrea is trying a bit too hard to show that she is not the Rob zombie she once was, I gotta admit that her flirting with Eddie was well played, as it pushed him to reveal too much information (Reynold’s idol, Andrea being the target, etc.)

– Brenda Lowe: This is getting ridiculous. Another episode without a word from Brenda. So according to Corinne in her exit interviews Brenda was pretty silent on the island. I understand why I think, as she was perceived to be a big threat entering the game, she must have been tempted by the as under the radar as possible strategy. But no confessionals? Even after winning immunity? This is beyond my comprehension. On a side note, I knew Brenda was going to win this one. The woman basically lives in the water.

– Dawn Meehan: She’s playing a pretty amazing game. She’s betraying people after people and no one seems to realize it. Everyone keeps on trusting her, and confiding in her, one after the other. I guess this is because she has managed to build great relationships with everyone. Corinne thought Dawn was her closest ally out there. Malcolm although must have thought they were tight as he didn’t even suspect her to be the one who got Corinne voted out. Another thing to be noted. While as viewers we clearly see that it’s mostly Dawn and Cochran that are running the game, it’s amazing to think that no one on the island seems to realize that they are that close (or else they wouldn’t confide to Dawn). Kuddos to them for that.

– Eddie Fox: What an idiot! At the moment I thought he was finally starting to play the game (by flirting, what else?) he fails miserably and gets played and spills too many beans to Andrea.

– Erik Reichenbach: No Erik this week either. However, it is interesting to note that early in the game it seemed that Erik and Brenda were going to be against Phillip, they know are voting with him. It clearly shows that nobody takes him seriously (expect people in the editing room who still think they have to show him doing the same things over and over again every episode – giving nicknames, being extremely unstealthy, referencing Boston Rob constantly, etc), but it doesn’t tell us with whom Erik and Brenda are really aligned. With the Favorites as a whole? Or with one or two members in particular? Which ones?

– John Cochran: Surprisingly not much about Cochran this week, at least from a strategy point of view. However, I like how his story unfolds (i.e. more and more a winner edit)

– Malcolm Freberg: Malcolm had a very interesting episode. He made a few mistakes and a few great moves. Mistake: after Corinne got voted out, he didn’t seem burned with his former alliance, so he should have laid low instead of trying to hit again right away. Forgivable but mortal mistake: talking about your plans with Dawn. Stupid mistake: trying to bring Sherri to your alliance when Malcolm must know that Sherri and Reynold/Eddie really dislike each other. Good move: targeting Andrea (strange how he thinks that she’s the brain of the alliance – interesting how it seems that nobody is aware of who the brain is, even I am unsure at this point, it’s Cochran and Dawn, right?). Good move: understanding that the Favorite alliance has forsaken him during tribal council. Amazing move: stopping Reynold from playing his idol and making him give it. Had the favorite alliance actually voted for Malcolm (as they were going to if Eddie hadn’t been stupid), it would have been one of the great moves in Survivor history. Instead, it will be inconsequential. Sad. WTF move: why voting for Reynold? It’s supposed to be a throwaway vote (as he assumed that every other vote was either against him or against Andrea), why risk to anger your number one ally at this point?
Now the question is: what is next for Malcolm. Now he’s out as having flipped against his former allies. He could play his idol next vote, but that would just save him for one more vote. So I guess he must convinced the people that are at the bottom of the Stealth Are Us alliance that this is where they are. Only problem is that he needs to convince two people (to force a tie) and three to get a majority. Seeing how he already failed to bring Erik in his alliance (when Erik is clearly at the bottom of Stealth Are Us) it seems that it’s more or less mission impossible for Malcolm. His only realistic option is to survive enough votes (with his idol and by winning immunity) until Stealth Are Us starts to crumble by itself.

– Michael Snow voted out: Poor Michael. He had no leeway and no option. It didn’t started this week, it basically started at the tribal swap and Matt’s eviction. He survived longer just thanks to Corinne. I liked him, he could have gone far hadn’t he been screwed (or hadn’t he been cast as a Fan but in a regular season). Too bad. Oh and by the way, is Michael in the jury? I don’t remember Probst saying it, but I seen some Ponderosa videos on the official site, so I assume he is (I need to find the time to watch them).

– Phillip Sheppard: OK, I gotta admit that I find one thing funny about Phillip: how he calls his alliance Stealth Are Us and how he is the least stealthy person in the world.

Reynold Toepfer: I still think that he’s a douche, but I’m starting to root for him for some strange reason. Maybe because I want Malcolm to go as far as possible and the route for that is Reynold going far too. There’s also the fact that he’s so gullible it almost becomes endearing. I wonder how he will react to Malcolm voting against him, and more important how he will react when Malcolm plays his own idol.

– Sherri Biethman: It may seem normal for Sherri to be willing to join the Favorite alliance, as her other option is to be alone. However, I’m quite surprised how she thinks she can have some control over it (at some point she almost sounds like she thinks she will control the entire thing). Aren’t we a little too overconfident Ms Biethman? Also funny how Phillip is her Shamar when originally Shamar was her Phillip.

 

 

Next week:

Dawn has a meltdown? This late in the game? Well, as she says that she will pull herself out of the game in the promo we can only assume that she won’t. I wish the promo showed us a bit about something else.

 

Next person voted out:

Unless Dawn pulls herself out of the game, Malcolm is in serious trouble next week, unless he plays his idol and manages to vote out Andrea, Dawn or Cochran.

 

Winner prediction: My money is still on Cochran, and pretty much only on him at this point (ok, and a little bit on Dawn and a few cents on Malcolm)

 

And now, the usual links to the other analysts I really like (sorry for not posting them last week).

 

 

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Frenchman, addicted to Survivor (yes, there is such a thing) to the point of having a blog dedicated to the show where I like to analyze and speculate about what we see every week.

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